Analysis

 

Palestinian analysts predict new government
March 8, 2009

 

As preparations for Palestinian conciliation continue following the resignation of the caretaker government in Ramallah, just what the new government will look like remains unclear.

In his resignation letter outgoing caretaker Prime Minister Dr Salam Fayyad said he hoped the termination of his government would spur and support the creation of a national consensus government. The mechanisms for putting together this government are the five committees recently appointed by all factions, principally the “Government Committee.”

Beyond being charged with cobbling together a government that all parties agree to, there is little information on what ideas or plans the committee is operating on.

Dr Ali Jarbawi, a lecturer of political science at Birzeit University and member of the elections committee, said he expects the new government to be a mix of Palestinian factions and independent figures.

He told Maan that the government’s major task will be laying the grounds for sustainable conciliation, putting an end to internal rivalry, rebuilding the Gaza Strip, beginning internal reform, maintaining security, and achieving agreement on a political agenda capable of handling negotiations with Israel, carrying out resistance activities when necessary and preparing for elections the beginning of 2010.

Hamas will not soon abandon its government in Gaza, Al-Jarbawi, predicted, but noted the Gaza government would largely depend on the success of the national dialogue committees. The 2010 elections, he added, will ultimately determine what the government in both the West Bank and Gaza will be.

Hani Al-Masry, another Palestinian political analyst, also ruled out the possibility of Hamas surrendering its rule in the Gaza Strip immediately, and predicted that the move away from Hamas-control of the Strip would happen gradually over time.

As for the form of government, Al-Masri expects to be closer to a technocrat body made up of professionals and independents with some representatives of Palestinian factions, but not their top leaders. Its agenda will be similar to that of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), but with the issue of negotiations linked to a halt in Israeli settlement expansion.

With regards to Palestinian elections, Al-Masri predicted they would be delayed beyond 2010 because Fatah is not ready, and Hamas wants to maintain a majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). He also suggested Israeli interference could delay them.

Al-Masri put forward three names for the next leader of Palestine: Salam Fayyad, Jamal Al-Khudari, and Munib Al-Masri.

Former ministers Azmi Al-Shu’aybi predicted the new government would be made up of a mix of all possible types and include factional members, independents and technocrats. He said that national unity will only be restored by uniting the security services, preparing for new elections, rebuilding Gaza and opening the Gaza crossing points.

Al-Shu’aybi did not rule out a possible “collusion” between Fatah and Hamas to delay elections for both parties’ interests.

As for the future prime minister, he said it would be nominated by Hamas for two reasons: One, because they were jilted out of election victory in 2006, and two, because the last president was from the West Bank and all parties are interested in power sharing.

Source: Maan News Agency

 
 

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